What does this mean going forward? Assessments provided by the FAO’s State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture (SOFIA) report, based more on expert elicitation than catch-only modeling, provide the current best estimate of the state of global unassessed fisheries. We found that overall they performed poorly, better than a random guess, but often biased and imprecise. ( 2021), we looked at the potential for models based largely on the volume and shape a fisheries catch history to estimate the state of global fisheries. This means that actually figuring out how many fish are in the water can be very difficult, and determining what sustainable levels of harvest are likely to be even more challenging. There is a saying adapted from the fisheries scientist John Shepherd that managing fisheries is just like managing trees except they move and you can’t see them.
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